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Tuesday, March 31, 2020

Numbers game

 3/31/20 www.ncov2019.live
I keep getting these covid deniers writing to tell me that it is all much ado about nothing, that people always die, it's media hysteria, not as bad as the flu, numbers don't add up, bla, bla, bla.

Now the epidemiologists will tell you that it is far worse than the flu, from a mortality standpoint by a near factor of ten. But why believe deep state doctors, let's look at the numbers ourselves:

We lost 719 people today. That is a very bad day, a 22.07% mortality increase to date. In one day. Grand total of deceased in the United States at 3976 now.

The flu totals for the last season (2018-2019) were estimated to max out at 32,400. If we divide that number by 365 it comes out to 88.76. per day. So you can see that today was indeed a very bad day and the covid 19 deaths we experienced today are larger than flu deaths in an average day by a factor of over nine times. 14.38% more covid 19 cases in the country today.

Now you may not believe me. And what is interesting is that what you believe or not believe is probably tied to your political beliefs. New study: Partisanship is the strongest predictor of coronavirus response. Click on the survey and then download the pdf if you wish.

Postscript: A math teacher friend writes to tell me that people don't die from the flu year round so my numbers are skewed and inaccurate. Perhaps. For sake of argument, if people die six months a year from the flu, the average causalties per day will still be a little over half that of Covid -19. And according to this Request for correction, flu deaths are often overstated as well.


Scrota Voce said...

Bell shape, bloated in the middle. Recovered will have a steep climb in the couple of weeks. Why? Mo miracle. Just that this is the 4th week
of the onset and the sick are recovering, and the recovery will be vastly under reported. Why? Because you call the doctor when you get sick. You never call them when you get well, you just go about your business.

So it is written. So shall it be done.

Yul Brynner

Blue Heron said...

So this is your point? There is a bell curve, a whole bunch of people will die suddenly in the middle. We'll get over it?