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Cooper's Hawk, Torrey Pines

Monday, March 23, 2020

lemmings


It is official. We are governed by a bunch of imbeciles. Last night Trump signaled that this social distancing thing has got to stop, lives be damned. It's simply not good for the economy.
“WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF,” Mr. Trump tweeted in all capital letters shortly before midnight. “AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!”
He continued with the refrain today:
"We have to open our country because that (sic) causes problems that could be far bigger," he said. Doctors, he said, would shut down the whole world. "We can't let that happen to our country, we have the greatest country in the world, I'm not going to let that happen," he said.
Here's Larry Kudlow today regarding the need to get people working again right away:
Well, we’re going to have to try to do that. We can’t shut in the economy. The economic cost to individuals is just too great. So, let’s see how this thing plays out. More testing is essential, and we’re loading up with tests now that’s going to be a big help. But the president is right, the cure can’t be worse than the disease. And we’re going to have to make some difficult trade offs. 
Difficult tradeoffs, Larry? You volunteering?

Texas Lt. Governor Dan Patrick is right there with him. Senior citizens should be prepared to die to help their grandkids and move the economy along.  
I don’t pretend to be speaking for everyone 70-plus. But I think there are lots of grandparents out there who would agree with me that I want my grandchildren to live in the America I did. I want them to have a shot at the American Dream but right now there’s a virus which all the experts say that 98 percent of all people will survive... It is killing our country in another way. It could bring about a total economic collapse and potentially a collapse of our society. So I say let’s give this a few more days or weeks but after that, let’s go back to work and go back to living. Those we want to shelter in place can still do so but we can’t live with uncertainty.
This is of course, completely irrational and a false choice. The victims of the pandemic are not going to all be over 70 if America goes back to work before it is safe, it is an equal opportunity disease. In my county currently, the most prevalent age group afflicted is 20 to 29. Many of the young lucky enough to survive are receiving grave injuries to their internal organs, including livers, kidneys, hearts and lungs. So spare me the false bravado, Patrick. You consistently rank up there as one of the biggest idiots in the country and you demonstrate the depths of your ignorance once again. Gohmert, Patrick, Abbott, your state is a murderer's row of stupidity.
“No one reached out to me and said as a senior citizen, ‘Are you willing to take a chance on your survival in exchange for keeping the America that all America loves for your children and grandchildren?’” Patrick declared. “And if that is the exchange, I’m all in.”
Hopefully clearer heads will prevail and Trump will get this ridiculous notion of relaxing safety standards and putting people back to work at close proximity out of his head. It's dangerous and asinine. Now is the time to listen to the doctors and scientists, not the economists.

16 comments:

Kerr A. Lott said...



The Mortality Rate of a disease is the percentage of infected patients who die.

On 3/03 COVID-19 global mortality rate was 3.40%

On 3/24 COVID-19 global mortality rate is 4.3222% 

It’s projected that at least half of Americans (163,600,000) will eventually contract the virus.

If that projection is accurate, and the 4% mortality rate holds, by the time half of Americans are infected 7,071,119 of us will be dead from COVID-19.

If all Americans were eventually infected over 14 million of us would die.

This scenario does not account for the possibility of increased testing and acquisition of more ventilators.

All bets are off if we abandon shelter-in-place and social distancing.




Anonymous said...

One may want to take into consideration that the current UNITED STATES stats of infections/deaths are 49,768/600 and of course, changing by the moment. That is a mortality rate of 1.205 %. While the certainty of 600 deaths is close to finite, the number of infections is certainly grossly undercounted and that the mortality rate in the U.S. is, at present, certainly far below 1.2%.

Blue Heron said...

i suggest that you look at the disease globally and not nationally. Close to 600 deaths in Spain yesterday, casualty numbers doubling in Italy, I would not hang my hat on early mortality numbers. Sign your comment.

Anonymous said...

The mortality rates vary wildy, globally, and therefore it would be prudent and very wise to concentrate on what is happening right here on the North American Continent and specifically in the U.S. where we have at present a COVID 19 (early) mortality rate of 1.2 % compared to the much higher (early) mortality rate in the numbers from other continents and countries as reported by the first comment on this post. Context is important.

Kerr A. Lott said...



The certainty of at least 600 deaths in the U.S. is clear.

It's also clear that the number of infections is seriously underestimated, because many infected people are asymptomatic.

The mortality rate in the U.S. is, at present, around 1.2% but if worldwide mortality can rise .92% in three weeks the same thing can happen here, and the result will be even worse because our government do not have control over us the way the Chinese government controls their citizens.

The virus is just getting started in the U.S. and the upward curve everyone wants to flatten is steep and getting steeper.

Today, March 24, the total number of COVID-19 deaths in the U.S. is 534. Since the first death the number has doubled every three days.

If that trend continues the total number of U.S. deaths will be 1,068 on March 21. Seems we are catching up with Italy and Spain.

Trump's notion that getting back to business should take priority over protecting Americans is 100% wrong.

Anonymous said...

I wasn't aware that Trump articulated that opening segments of the economy should take precedent over the health of Americans - to claim as much sounds like a cleverly worded lie. That Trump is 100% wrong in considering opening segments of the economy is just an opinion and should probably have been mitgated by the specter of widespread human misery, poverty and death that a severe depression will bring this Nation.

That the U.S. mortality rate could replicate the world (.92%) increase is possible but not probable (an opinion) and to assert that a possible U.S. increase could be even greater than the (.92%) world increase based on the ability of the Chinese Government to (brutally) control their citizens is nonsensical. Control may have reduced infections, but certaily didn't improve mortality which is the comparative here. Considering the documented brutal and even inhuman measures that the Chinese Communist goverment took, it can soundly be argued that the .92% world increase was a due partly to that.

Kerr A. Lott said...


Sorry, should have typed "If that trend continues the total number of U.S. deaths will be 1,068 on March 21 March 27.

Not "If that trend continues the total number of U.S. deaths will be 1,068 on March 21".

The point I'm trying to make is that the pandemic is serious business and Trump's idea to go back to work in a few weeks is crazy. Like him.

Blue Heron said...

Congratulations to both of you on a good well reasoned argument.

Kerr A. Lott said...


One senior Trump administration official said the President is losing patience with the period of national self-isolation that has frozen the US economy.

Trump very much wants to get people back to work, but his medical advisers continue to tell him the country has a way to go before emerging from the worst of the outbreak, a source familiar with the matter said.

Trump was initially resistant to Fauci's recommendations that he take steps to encourage social distancing during the first go-around, people familiar with the deliberations said. After coming under intense criticism for not acting more decisively, Trump went ahead with the recommendations -- but remains unconvinced it was the right decision.

Quotes from the “president”:

”Our country wasn't built to be shut down. This is not a country that was built for this. It was not built to be shut down.”

"If it were up to the doctors, they may say let's keep it shut down -- let's shut down the entire world.”

"WE CANNOT LET THE CURE BE WORSE THAN THE PROBLEM ITSELF, AT THE END OF THE 15 DAY PERIOD, WE WILL MAKE A DECISION AS TO WHICH WAY WE WANT TO GO!"

"I'm not looking at months, I'll tell you right now," Trump said. "We're going to open up our country."

“Fifteen days, then we keep the high risk groups protected as necessary and the rest of us go back to work."

Anonymous said...

Actually, that is President. With a capital P and no quotation marks. Whether anyone likes it or not.

Hmm...unamed senior officials and 'sources and people familiar with'....how quaint. Most are hip to these kind of lies by now.

I imagine that when Trump was told that he needed to drive the Nation's economic well being right off the cliff, he probably reacted much like a man who is told that he needs to have his legs sawed off to save his life. As for 'acting more decisively after coming under intense criticism', this is the from the same storytellers who know nothing about Trump (or his supporters), deal only in their own (hate) twisted narrative and who purport to read Trump's mind on a regular basis. It never matters what he does, only what they say that he is thinking. Besides, while Trump as an experienced executive who will take and act on advice, he doesn't buckle under criticism. But I digress....
Back to the man who has to saw his legs off. He DID listen to the scientists and he DID act upon the advice of Dr. Fauci, Dr. Birx, the Surgeon General of the United States, et all, correct? That should make every(I'm with science!)body happy - but no. Even Dr. Fauci is getting irrated with the haters trying to drive a wedge between him and the Trump Administration - he said so yesterday, AGAIN.

The President gave a measured and reasoned press conference just hours ago, scientists present, whereas he outlined an intent to open certain segments of the economy in certain geographic regions of the country on Easter which is around 25 days from initiating the 15 day advisory at the behest of scientists.

Rational disagreement is one thing but my personal opinion is that it is disgraceful that while leading this nation through a deadly and war like global epidemic which could destroy our health, lives and any shred of well being, the President has to come under incessant second guessing and pestering ad hominem attacks by the same ole same ole bitter people who think it is business as usual during these times.

A Gallup poll came out today which shows 60% of Americans approve of the President's handling of this disaster.

Blue Heron said...

He doesn't know where things will be in this country on Easter. Nobody does. What an arbitrary date he picks out of his hat. Gallup is a notoriously skewed poll to the right. I think you are lacking a bit of objectivity yourself in your zeal to back this man, but whatever, to each his own. But I ask you again to either sign your comments or refrain from making them.

Kerr A. Lott said...

Trump's handling of this crisis is ridiculously bad, even his most ardent supporters - like Mr. Anonymous - should be able to see that.

According to a senior Trump administration official the President is losing patience with the period of national self-isolation that has frozen the US economy.

Trump very much wants to get people back to work, but his medical advisers continue to tell him the country has a way to go before emerging from the worst of the outbreak, a source familiar with the matter said.

Trump was initially resistant to Fauci's recommendations that he take steps to encourage social distancing during the first go-around, people familiar with the deliberations said. After coming under intense criticism for not acting more decisively, Trump went ahead with the recommendations -- but remains unconvinced it was the right decision.

Trump foresees a rapid recovery and "packed churches all over our country" on Easter, he told Fox News on Tuesday.

"I'm not sure that's going to be the day, but I will love to aim it right at Easter Sunday," he said.

Meanwhile the “ U.S. sees its deadliest day: At least 163 people died (from COVID-19) Tuesday (which started out with fewer than 60 deaths), bringing the US death toll past 700, as the WHO warned the country could be the next epicenter of the virus. More than 52,000 people have been infected with the virus throughout the country.

The tally of total confirmed cases has increased by at least 23% each day since March 4 -- in some cases, much more steeply. From March 18 to March 19, confirmed US cases rose 51% in just one day, from 8,760 to 13,229, the largest one-day increase in recent weeks.

New information at 9:35 AM Wednesday :

There are at least 60,050 cases of novel coronavirus in the United States, according to CNN Health’s tally of US cases that are detected and tested in the United States through US public health systems.

As of March 25, 9:46 AM PST at least 807 people have died from COVID-19 in the U.S. (only 728 according to the New York Times). https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/03/21/upshot/coronavirus-deaths-by-country.html

The total includes cases from all 50 states, the District of Columbia and other US territories, as well as all repatriated cases.

Blue Heron said...

I'm afraid that you will have a monologue for now. Anonymous sent me two subsequent comments, well considered, but refuses to sign them after two warnings from me. I'm not going to let people do this with controversial topics. My blog.

Kerr A. Lott said...


Anonymous is probably afraid that Antifa will come after him if he reveals his identity.

Ed said...

This will happen when you vote for politicians to do things that you know are immoral if you do them.

Blue Heron said...

Very true, Ed.