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green heron

Sunday, April 19, 2020

Rt Covid-19

From the two guys who designed Instagram, Rt Covid-19.
An amazing Covid 19 tracker that shows exactly where "safe" lies for each individual state.
The metric being tracked here (Rt) represents the effective reproduction rate of the virus calculated for each locale. It lets us estimate how many secondary infections are likely to occur from a single infection in a specific area. Values over 1.0 mean we should expect more cases in that area, values under 1.0 mean we should expect fewer.
Estimating the metric.

If you move your cursor in the individual state graphs you can see how the infection rate has changed. If the authors are correct, currently the safest state in terms of future projections is Conneticut, the least safe, North Dakota.

2 comments:

aferda said...

Providing everything stays the same. If someone reads this as green states are safe to reopen schools and businesses, they grossly misinterpret what the data are showing.

Blue Heron said...

Well, no one is making that supposition. It is exactly what it is. Actually surprised me how well certain states were doing and how poorly others were projecting. Alabama and Colorado are two places that are tracking better than what I would have expected. Counter intuitive imnaaho.